tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62571086027434390932024-03-12T19:46:37.218-07:00DemosPoliDemosPoliticshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00147653377972533496noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6257108602743439093.post-76882746745297852032013-09-02T05:46:00.001-07:002016-07-22T10:13:02.808-07:00<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 20.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Further notes on ‘The
Culture of Divide’</span></b></div>
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Roeland Decorte & Albert Beardow. Read 'The Culture of Divide' <a href="http://demospoli.blogspot.co.uk/search/label/Roeland%20Decorte">here</a>.</div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">FROM THE EDITORS:</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
As suggested by<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a few readers, it is
perhaps necessary to clear up a few things from the previous article on the
futility of the left-right dichotomy and the rise of a new international
political elite. It is important to stress that this ‘new order’, as manifested
in the centralization and concentration of political power by a select few in
office, is not the result of some 'grand conspiracy' hatched by the powerful to
obtain world-domination, rather it is only the result of human nature itself.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It
is almost an innate quality of every political being that he or she grabs every
opportunity to further personal power and influence. When we allow a select
group of individuals free reign over political and economic issues we should thus
not be surprised that such abuses arise. The fault lies only with us, as more
often than not we allow these abuses to pass by unnoticed. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8c/USA-US_Capitol1.JPG/800px-USA-US_Capitol1.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="File:USA-US Capitol1.JPG" border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8c/USA-US_Capitol1.JPG/800px-USA-US_Capitol1.JPG" height="212" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">United States Capitol <i><span style="font-size: x-small;">(photo: ingfbruno)</span></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It
is also true that many of those enhancing their own power are convinced they
are helping the people as a whole, whether through the popular political belief
that the people cannot decide for themselves and need guidance, or, as sadly
seems most often the case today, out of a wishful thinking, emboldened by
vested-interest economists, that spending massive amounts of money on popular
projects not only increases their own popularity but also benefits the economy
as a whole for future generations, rather than – as is the sad reality –
impoverishing them.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Too
many don't seem capable of appreciating that, like was said of the British
Empire, this institutional takeover has actually happened in "a fit of
absence of mind". Yet, as we know that almost all top-down plans fail, it
should be no surprise that even the imposition of top-down control on the
economy and populace will have arisen not out of some top-down conspiracy, but
from the aggregate of semi-conscious, individual harmful decisions that our
political institutions were not robust to. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The
idea that this is not the result of our human missteps but rather some kind of
grand conspiracy is dangerous indeed. Firstly, it suggests that a top-down
conspiracy must be fought with alternative top-down measures, more iatrogenic
regulations, or the idea that a simple solution like wealth confiscation or
simply changing the people in power (electing a different president, say) will
be enough to stop this malaise. Instead this will at best do nothing, at worst
make the institutions even less robust to errors. Secondly, it tends to
categorise people into "conspirators" and those who do not partake,
or the "1%" versus the "99%" (or indeed, "left"
versus "right"), ignoring the irregularities in such superficial notions,
and thus unfairly penalising or accusing groups who are not guilty. This leads
to further division and mistrust, only deepening the culture of divide. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">There
are of course some people who do actively hold the people in contempt and
deliberately work against them, and their effects on the system as a whole are
probably scalable, but this still misses the main point. Ask most government
regulators, bureaucrats, subsidised CEOs, or economics professors whether he
believes in a simple, robust, ethically sound approach, and he will say yes -
and genuinely believe it. He will only fail to apply it to his own craft - the
temptation to self-serve, both materially and intellectually, is too great. Paradigmatic
is the CEO of AIG who, under criticism for his huge bonuses, quoted "Atlas
Shrugged" to argue that business leaders were unappreciated. He failed to
remember that the villains in "Atlas Shrugged" were CEOs getting
government bail-outs. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e4/Houses.of.parliament.overall.arp.jpg/799px-Houses.of.parliament.overall.arp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="File:Houses.of.parliament.overall.arp.jpg" border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e4/Houses.of.parliament.overall.arp.jpg/799px-Houses.of.parliament.overall.arp.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Houses of Parliament, UK</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Many
individual regulators also believe that they are helping the economy becoming
more ethical by introducing a whole series of limitations on businesses and
their dealings, though – as seen in the video in the article below – many of
the most powerful and famous amongst them are themselves backed by vested interest groups or on the board of some business benefiting from the regulations. Those
regulators that are free of vested interests, however, and who really want to
protect the economy and the population as a whole, often fail to see that by
creating more complex regulations they are only exacerbating the problem. While
the large businesses with their political clout and armies of lawyers will
unavoidably find some way to game the system, such complex regulation only
makes it more difficult for smaller businesses to rise and compete with the
already established giants, thus preventing the rise of diversity and impoverishing the market as a
whole. Increased regulation also serves to put more power in the hands of the
regulator (i.e. the government), in which the regulator without political
incentives and vested interests is, as we have seen, very much the exception.
In other words, they are only paving the path for more excesses. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">As
said in the article below: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘Th</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">ough their intentions are
commendable, the thought that any political organ – something which exists only
to support certain political interests – could ever objectively govern the
economy in the interest of all, is sadly vain hope.</span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Only if every single individual were
directly represented in government, would the government realistically protect
every individual’s interests in economic policy. This is not possible through
any sort of indirect representation, or financial committee. It is, however,
exactly what defines the free market</i>.’</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Ultimately,
if everyone believes in robust and ethical actions, but are self-serving and
fragile in their own, then the whole system will be fragile and self-serving,
without any conscious guidance. The important point it to stop these misdeeds
at the source, not counter their effects with some other fragile self-serving
top-down solution. Take power away from bureaucrats. Keep regulation simple so
that it can't be abused. Let companies fail. Don't subsidise them so they are
too big in the first place. Pay heed to the assumptions and vested interests of
academic economic models, and their openness to error, rather than just the
results of such models. Do not leverage to the point that economies need to be
"managed" simply in order to pay down the debt. And don't give those
who have shown themselves to be arrogant and self-serving more power and
rewards!</span></div>
DemosPoliticshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00147653377972533496noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6257108602743439093.post-40670745281108002652013-08-03T11:06:00.000-07:002016-07-22T10:57:44.337-07:00<!--[if !mso]>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 22.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Culture of Divide</span></b></div>
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Roeland Decorte.</div>
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<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMAIsqvTh7g"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">‘Clowns to the Left, jokers to the Right.’</span></i></b></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Through centuries of vague
characterization, deliberate misrepresentation and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>manipulation of our innate tendency to consider
the world through an ‘us’ versus ‘them’ narrative, society in the West has
become heavily dichotomized. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed, we
are living in a time when political divisions, enmities and feuds are no longer
limited to localities or individuals, but carry on, throughout time, from one
generation to the next, bringing with them a premade set of ideals, hopes and
beliefs, as well as vilification of the other side. In this post I will briefly
argue why the use of terms such as ‘left’ and ‘right’-wing, as well as most
terms like ‘progressive’ or ‘conservative’, are not only futile in reasoned
political debate but actually actively harmful and obstructive.</span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The
History</span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">In the early days of
the French revolution, the “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Assemblée
nationale</i>” – the transitional government – was divided into those in favour
of the revolution, and those in support of the old monarchy. The
revolutionaries sat to the left, whereas those in support of the old order were
seated on the right. Though during the days of executions and arrests the right
side was often abandoned, the seating arrangement survived in later
governmental structures. In the successors of the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Assemblée</i>, the so-called ‘innovators’ were nearly always seated on
the left side and the so-called ‘defenders of the constitution and faith’ on
the right. </span></div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/91/Estatesgeneral.jpg/800px-Estatesgeneral.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="File:Estatesgeneral.jpg" border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/91/Estatesgeneral.jpg/800px-Estatesgeneral.jpg" height="201" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Assemblée nationale</td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The idea of a
‘left-right’ division fitted well into the storm of political ideals overtaking
Europe in the late 18<sup>th</sup> and 19<sup>th</sup> century after the French Revolution. The notion of a world-wide class struggle
between the people as a whole and its ‘higher orders’</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";"> grew exponentially</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">. And indeed, in those days there were actual entrenched
political classes: the aristocracy still dominated the political landscape of Europe and
the population as a whole had very little say in government. Following the
seating arrangement of the French parliament, the term ‘left-wing’ became known
as ‘progressive’ – consisting mainly out of ‘commons’ – whereas ‘right-wing’
became known as ‘conservative’ – consisting mainly of the aristocracy. </span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Road
to Nowhere</span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Whatever original
usefulness these terms might have had for the characterization of different
sides during the French revolution, as well during the subsequent European struggle
against the aristocracy, I need not point out to anyone familiar with the
current political landscape that the terms have long since lost their meaning. With
the disappearance of an actual aristocracy with political power, the terms are
now used in a myriad of different ways, with a myriad of different – often
contradictory – meanings. In our current representative democracies, not one
major party proposes a reinstatement of aristocratic rule (though some propose
bureaucratic, or ‘technocratic’ rule) and all sides – at least nominally but
hopefully also genuinely – believe in the right of the people to govern
their own affairs.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The ‘right-wing’ as it
existed during the French revolution, therefore, no longer exists. Nor does, in
fact, the French revolutionary left, as it was a mixed bag of what later would
become defined as liberalism (meant in the original interpretation, not the new
American one), socialism and centrism. Indeed, both the
current ‘left’ and ‘right’ were born from what was ‘liberal’ opposition to
traditional aristocratic rule. Really, what we now see as the difference
between left- and right-wing politics is a split following the division in the mid-19<sup>th</sup>
century between capitalist and anti-capitalist movements. The fact that
this is where the real modern division gets its first inception is best illustrated by the fact that ‘classical
liberalism’ is deemed to be right-win</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">g, whereas <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>‘social liberalism’ is deemed to be left-wing.
</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6e/EdwardMoran-UnveilingTheStatueofLiberty1886Large.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6e/EdwardMoran-UnveilingTheStatueofLiberty1886Large.jpg" border="0" class="decoded" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6e/EdwardMoran-UnveilingTheStatueofLiberty1886Large.jpg" height="320" width="216" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Inauguration of the Statue of Liberty</td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">It is a fact that is
not often pointed out, but worth remembering, that both left- and right-wing
movements, despite disagreement on how to run the economy, thus stem from a
common plight. Indeed, modern conservatism,
very often anti-statist and anti-government, has very
little in common with oligarchic 'conservative' factions of 19<sup>th</sup> century Europe, yet still uses its obsolete name.</span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Divide
et Impera</span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Of course one could
argue that the terms have evolved with time, and though none of the original premises
hold true, the populace generally understands what is meant by ‘left’ and
‘right’-wing by observing political practice. As we will see below, however,
this does not seem to be the case at all. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">A very in-depth
study conducted over the course of multiple years by the London School of
Economics as part of the official British
Election Studies found that, when asked to place themselves on the left-right
scale, just
over 18% of voters did not know what ‘left-wing’ meant. Of the remaining 82%,
each gave roughly two answers. From all of these answers only 59 per cent could
be said to ‘correspond unambiguously with even a broad-based conception of what
political scientists mean by ‘left’ (that is, answers which said that ‘left’
meant in favour of working-class, poor, ordinary working person or against the
middle class, the rich or business; answers which associated the left with
Communism, Marxism, socialism, the Labour Party, or against Conservatism,
fascism, etc.)’ [Heath and Lalljee 1996: 98]. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The study also noted
that ‘among the most common answers (given 45 times) were ones which defined
the left as people who are extreme, dogmatic or militant but without any
mention of the content of their extremism’ [Heath and Lalljee 1996: 99] – a
fact, I would argue, clearly illustrative of the divisive nature of the
left-right divide. On what was meant by ‘right-wing’ politics, there was again
just under 20% of respondents that did not know the answer. The remainder gave about
1.2 answers per person, of which only 58% corresponded closely to the political
scientist’s concept’ [Ibid].</span></div>
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</div>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">This political confusion is fundamental to why the status-quo, maintained mainly by power-hungry self-styled 'centrists', holds such sway. Misunderstanding and
mischaracterization from both sides, as well as party-political divisions, have
kept power out of the hands of the people as a whole and into
the hands of those few who, above all, desire political office. We are living
in the age of the establishment, witnessing the attempts, through
ever-growing national, supra-national and global governments, to create a
new kind of ‘elite’. Indeed, while the ‘protectors of the people’ (as both
sides like to characterize themselves) are busy in-fighting, we see the birth of a new political aristocracy
in Brussels, London, Washington and elsewhere.</span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Methods
define the Results </span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The motto of this establishment
– often consisting of self-styled ‘technocrats’ – is simple: ‘people cannot
think for themselves, therefore we must decide what is best for them.’ This,
they say, is proven by data such as the study quoted above: people do not know what
they want, or what is the best way to go about to achieve it.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Indeed, much previous
research done in the line of the paper above (most notably Butler and Stokes'
seminal work) seemingly observed the general population to be perpetually fickle
in its allegiances and beliefs – often displaying little to no knowledge of the
issues, voting based on arbitrary notions such as who their family 'always voted for’ or which politician's personality they liked. These studies then often ended by noting that the only conclusion one could draw was to ‘interpret the
fluidity of the public’s view as an indication of the limited degree to which
attitudes are formed towards even the best-know policy issues.’ [Butler and
Stokes 1974:281] Such sentiments remained dominant amongst political scientist
for decades, and were very convenient for those in favour of more
centralization and less direct popular involvement.</span></div>
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<a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/Political_chart.svg/543px-Political_chart.svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="File:Political chart.svg" border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/Political_chart.svg/543px-Political_chart.svg.png" height="320" width="294" /></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The paper quoted above, however, [Heath and Lalljee 1996] explored the
possibility that the problem actually was not the intelligence or
involvement of the general populace but rather the models used to map political
preference. Their paper was not the first paper to identify problems with the two-dimensional mapping of political opinions [see Luttbeg and
Gant 1985; Himmelweit et al. 1985; Heath 1986a; Fleishman 1988]. In their research,
however, they did not only inquire into the flaws of the model, but also
demonstrated that, when using different models, people in fact appear
consistent in their beliefs and ideals, as well as heavily involved in political issues.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Rather than using the
one axis left-right identification, they offered another, that of authoritarian
vs. libertarian. But most notably, they chose to ask people about specific
political beliefs rather than just party-political issues or current affairs. This
is crucial, as it serves to briefly break through the bonds of the partycratic
politics dominating our modern representative democracies, and tap right
into the personal beliefs and hopes of the individuals. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The study asked the
interviewees for their opinions on things like big business, freedom of speech,
tradition and the legal system. and then asked the same group the same question
again one year later. Subsequently they used these specific issues to predict how the interviewees would vote in particular elections. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Unsurprisingly, this model
yielded a stunning consistency in political beliefs and hopes, noting that
‘political attitudes are not random and unstable, neither are they constrained
along a single left-right dimension, instead they are structured within a value
framework involving dimensions of both left-right and libertarian-authoritarian
beliefs and possibly several others. When measured suitably these values appear
to form consistent, stable and consequential elements of British political
culture.’ [Heath and Lalljee 1996: 109]</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Indeed, the general
uneasiness of the population in placing itself on the political scale, as well
as their fickleness in supporting and opposing different parties and groups, is
not a result of any supposedly inherent lack of knowledge, but rather of the
unyielding and contradictory categorizations they are forced into.</span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The
Science of filling pots with no bottom</span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">One way of dealing
with the left-right difficulties has been to create political spectrum maps:
various graphs – sometimes simple, sometimes complicated – provide a series of different
parameters. Indeed, the study by Heath and Lalljee
used</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">, as mentioned above,</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";"> an ‘authoritarian’ vs. ‘libertarian’ graph. ‘Left’ and ‘right’ is purely seen as an economic issue, whereas social and idealistic preferences are mapped
differently. This is similar to the so-called ‘political compass’ (illustrated above), which is now used
widely – especially on the internet – to ascertain political stances.</span></div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3e/Danaides_Waterhouse_1903.jpg/423px-Danaides_Waterhouse_1903.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="File:Danaides Waterhouse 1903.jpg" border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3e/Danaides_Waterhouse_1903.jpg/423px-Danaides_Waterhouse_1903.jpg" height="320" width="225" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Danaids</td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The
problem with such multi-axis models (and there are a lot of them!) is that they
are all, like the Danaids in Greek mythology, trying to fill a jar with no
bottom. Even when defining left and right on purely economic terms, we encounter
many problems. Though it has often been noted that the extreme left and extreme
right, both authoritarian and statist, have much in common [Eysenck 1981,McClosky
and Chong 1985], many parties which are generally considered to be right-wing (for
example the most ‘extreme’ right-wing party in my native Belgium) favour
interventionist economic measures. Equally, many ‘right wing’ parties, such as
the Tories in the UK, have scores of Keynesian or state-interventionists among
their ranks. While in theory such a graph – identifying individuals or parties
as one of either ‘authoritarian or libertarian</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">’</span> and </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">‘</span>left or right’ – would work, the words
‘left-wing’ and ‘right-wing’ are simply not used like this in practice, and therefore
these graphs, which purportedly are to be a simplification of political
reality, prove more often to be wrong than right.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Furthermore, the old
idea of ‘conservative’ vs. ‘progressive’, which is still widely used in the
characterization of right vs. left wing, also becomes useless if understood in economic terms like the graph
above – even contradictory. Whereas most economic policy today is Keynesian
(we’re all Keynesians now!), those who are generally labelled ‘fiscally
conservative’ are the ones who want to radically change, limit and decrease government involvement in fiscal matters, whereas those who are generally characterized as ‘progressive’ want to ‘conserve’
and further current economic models, arguing for maintained belief in
Keynesian socio-economic systems as well as resistance to new impulses of austerity, as prompted by the
world-wide financial crisis.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Opposed
Allies</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Indeed, a quick look
at one of the main issues that currently dominates Western political debate, namely how to combat
the financial crisis and failing economies of the West, again reveals the futility, but also straight-out harmfulness, of
such a left-right divide. The left- and right-wing narratives seem, at first
sight, strongly opposed: while the former largely blames the crisis on the
extravagances and moral corruption of the banks, bankers and large
multinationals, the latter consider high tax-burden and mismanaged social
policies as the main culprits. The solutions proffered are also radically
different: one side wants to heavily regulate the banking sector (carrying
slogans saying ‘Capitalism has Failed!’) the other proposes lower taxes and
cutting social expenditure. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<div style="text-align: right;">
</div>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Indeed, it has come to
this: the left considers the left-right divide as one of big business and rich
elites versus the masses (the so-called 99%), whereas the right considers the right-left
divide as one of big government and political elites versus the masses. Both
sides, believing they are defending the masses – as their </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">‘</span>liberal</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">’</span> roots
necessitate – are attacking
different symptoms of the same disease. Yet the supposed political divide stops
them from recognizing this. The disease is this: big business CEOs do not
belong in government positions, and government officials do not belong on the
governing boards of banks. Both sides recognize this, however one side blames
the government, the other the bankers. But above all ... they blame each other.</span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">View
the difference</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">To illustrate this,
and to end this brief foray in some of our oldest political
terms, I have picked two videos – one from a left-wing background, one from a
right-wing background – which talk about the financial crisis. First, quite a
famous documentary, generally identified as ‘left-wing’, called ‘Inside Job’. In this documentary, though speckled
with typical ‘capitalism has failed’ and ‘the free market doesn’t
work’ narratives, the film-makers' research led them to the problem that so many of
the people responsible for the crisis were paid by, backed by, or even working
for, the government. A large part of the documentary is spent pointing out that many of the very same bankers which can be held responsible for the crisis
now occupy high positions in government. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">A brief promotional clip</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">can be found here, though the full documentary is of course copyrighted (go and watch it!):</span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: right;">
</div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The second clip, by
commentator and businessman Peter Schiff , shows Peter Schiff attending the
Occupy Wall Street protests when they were still in full swing, carrying a sign
reading ‘I am the one percent, let’s talk’. Though both
sides disagree on who exactly is the instigator of the financial troubles, near the end of the video (if you only watch two minutes, watch this) both sides seem to agree
on the problem, and invite each other to join their ranks. Strikingly, it ends by many of the Occupy movement expressing that they do not think capitalism is the problem.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<object height="270" style="clear: left; float: left;" width="480"><param name="movie" value="http://www.wingclips.com/embed/player.swf?config=http://www.wingclips.com/player/295/1372/config.js" /><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /><embed src="http://www.wingclips.com/embed/player.swf?config=http://www.wingclips.com/player/295/1372/config.js" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="270"></embed></object></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/UGL-Ex1CD1c/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UGL-Ex1CD1c?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
<br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";"><b>Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?</b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Indeed, to briefly voice my personal opinion, ‘Inside Job’, though brilliant in bringing to the
fore some of the problems in our current system, sadly, because of the party-political façades and the dichotomy described above, falls into the exact same pitfall which has led to those responsible for the
crisis being in government. Seeing the negative effects the regulators have
had on our economy, the documentary pushes for more regulation and more ‘oversight’. Though their intentions are commendable, the thought that any political organ – something which exists only to support
certain political interests – could ever objectively govern the economy in the
interest of all, is sadly vain hope. </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: right;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Only if every single
individual were directly represented in government, would the government realistically
protect every individual’s interests in economic policy. This is not possible through any sort of indirect representation, or financial committee. It is, however, exactly
what defines the free market: every single individual’s choices and preferences having
a direct input, and it is the collective – made up of millions and
millions of individuals – that decides which businesses are prospering
and which aren’t. Not some bureaucrat with vested interests. As long as we make sure
human rights and dignity are maintained and enforced across the board, the free market is the most egalitarian way of organizing the economy possible. As said in the video above by the Occupy protester, no
monopoly can ever rise without government interference (also said by Hayek[1944] p. 48 onwards). Many have been
conditioned to hate the free market. In this way, when government involvement fails, the establishment can claim it was because there was too little of it (leading to situations where those that failed the banks subsequently sat in government). The free market is, however, the fairest tool we have to organize our economy: too bad it has never been tried.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Come
Together, Right Now</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Taking a step back now
from personal opinion, let us get to the point: the only reason those groups of the population that identify themselves as variously left- and right-wing are seemingly at opposite sides of the debate on the financial crisis, is because of the façade meticulously built up by those in power over the past centuries. Though different groups may disagree on the way the crisis started, all recognize what the problem is. Yet rather than attacking the problem, we limit ourselves to attacking each other. What is more, the current debate on the economy is just one of a myriad of issues where similar circumstances hold. It is time to leave antagonizing speech and characterizations behind, as well as void terms that do not even describe our real hopes and dreams, and for once start conversing clearly and straightforwardly with each other. Only then, will democracy truly thrive. </span></div>
DemosPoliticshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00147653377972533496noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6257108602743439093.post-29573943894783615222013-07-18T09:51:00.001-07:002016-07-22T10:15:01.901-07:00<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "cambria" , "serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Freedom, Fairness, and Regulation</span></b></div>
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Albert Beardow.</div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In everyday speech and even in the media, the concepts of
free trade, free markets and light regulation are often used interchangeably,
with little appreciation for the key differences between them. Both their
supporters and detractors see them as part of a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">laissez-faire</i> package grounded solely in the unwavering principle
of individual freedom. Yet the rationales for these concepts as the basis for
economic life are quite distinct, and need not draw only on a moral belief in
human freedom, but empirical observations and broader notions of fairness and
equality before the law.</span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "cambria" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Free Trade</span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Free trade is the notion that international trade should be
allowed without tariffs or restrictions – or taken in the broadest sense, that
trade should be permitted between humans on the same terms regardless of their
membership of different nations or any other groups.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/40/Canary_Wharf_Skyline_1%2C_London_UK_-_Oct_2012.jpg/800px-Canary_Wharf_Skyline_1%2C_London_UK_-_Oct_2012.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="File:Canary Wharf Skyline 1, London UK - Oct 2012.jpg" border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/40/Canary_Wharf_Skyline_1%2C_London_UK_-_Oct_2012.jpg/800px-Canary_Wharf_Skyline_1%2C_London_UK_-_Oct_2012.jpg" height="197" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Canary Wharf Skyline <span style="font-size: x-small;">(photo by David Iliff)</span></td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The early advocates of free trade - Adam Smith and David
Ricardo prominent among them – tended to argue primarily in terms of its
empirical results – comparative advantage and fostering competitiveness. Whilst
this is doubtless a significant (though oft disputed) part of the rationale
behind free trade, I will not shy from saying that for me it is the moral
argument that is most important.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">There are two primary ways in which restrictions on free
trade violate ethical notions of human freedom and dignity. The first is to
subordinate the will of the individual to that of the “community”, membership
of which is rarely chosen but bestowed through the serendipity of birth. In
spite of what many opposed to free trade say, it is impossible to “force” free
trade on a person – rather the opposite, that force can only be used to deny a
person the right to free trade. This is perhaps not so much of a problem for
those “collectivists” who treat collectives as bodies with superior moral
standing to individuals.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Most collectivists (at least in the West) are less inclined
to dispose of the moral concept of human equality. Yet restrictions on free
trade do exactly that, for the “community” in question is not mankind as a
whole, but rather the nation. Given that nations have been for the most part
arbitrarily defined through the whims of history, mostly by kings and
conquerors long dead, it is difficult to see how these can be given an
independent moral standing. If members of a different (perhaps poorer) nation
are denied the same rights in their relationship with you as those within your
own nation, in what way can it be said that all humans have an equal standing
in terms of social justice? Some humans are then clearly more equal than
others. One need only observe how quickly protectionist rhetoric introduces the
notion of “them” as opposed to “us” to see how the rights and desires of others
are soon devalued.</span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "cambria" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Free Market</span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">If free trade deals with the question of “who”, then the free
market deals with the “how”. The core notion of the free market is that prices
and the distribution of goods should be set by supply and demand, and not by
fiat.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">There is, of course, considerable debate over the definition
of the term, with many contending that a free market means freedom solely from
government interference, and that a free market is equivalent to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">laissez-faire</i>. However, I would tend to
agree with the British classical economists from Smith onwards, who argued that
it does not matter whose fiat dictates prices – and as such, monopolistic or
monopsonistic markets cannot be characterised as truly free. For supply and
demand to work in determining price, competition on both sides is vital, and
thus a free market entails both a competitive system and the open access to
markets that facilitates this. </span></div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Afghan_market_teeming_with_vendors_and_shoppers_2-4-09.jpg/800px-Afghan_market_teeming_with_vendors_and_shoppers_2-4-09.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="File:Afghan market teeming with vendors and shoppers 2-4-09.jpg" border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Afghan_market_teeming_with_vendors_and_shoppers_2-4-09.jpg/800px-Afghan_market_teeming_with_vendors_and_shoppers_2-4-09.jpg" height="206" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Afghan market</td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It is worth elaborating briefly on the difference between
moral and empiricist arguments for human freedom. Perhaps the best example is
the question of paternalism - whether society should be ordered and planned by
experts who know the best ways for us to live. The moralist might oppose this
on the grounds that such an expert would be denying us our right to exercise
our freedom as individuals. The empiricist would oppose this on the grounds
that no such experts exist.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Moral arguments in favour of human freedom are less
convincing if used on their own to justify free markets. Even the most ardent
libertarians would deny, for example, that it were a morally just situation if
a man dying of thirst freely gave up his life’s savings in exchange for water
from a monopolist provider. The crucial argument supporting the free market is
empiricist in nature, and relates directly to the competitive system, and its
building of what Hayek called “spontaneous order”.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Freely set prices are important because they incorporate all
the various pieces of disperse knowledge that different actors in an economy
have – knowledge that no expert alone could possibly have access to. These
prices then guide resources to be allocated in desirable ways for society – to
overcome shortages, improve quality, and identify new demands. The beauty of a
free market system is its ability to spontaneously deal with the very
complexity that socialists believe makes planning desirable, but which makes
planning ultimately hopeless.</span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "cambria" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Regulation</span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A free market need not be totally absent from regulation to
remain free. It is hard to argue that a well thought out regulation to protect
workers’ or consumers’ safety, for example, would on its own distort the method
by which prices are set. The damage done by regulations instead arises
primarily from two sources: inhibited innovation due to precautionary
restrictions, and the costs of excessive complexity.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Economies grow through a process of trial and error, through
the success and failure of new business ideas, scientific endeavours and
technological breakthroughs. It is in the realm of the untried and untested
that the greatest prospects for growth are to be found. It should therefore
follow naturally that regulations which prevent (or at least delay) new
endeavours are a deterrent to progress. There is, of course, a more profound
debate to be had here about the extent to which society wants to risk the
uncertainties and possible dangers that come with new developments (which I
will write about in more detail in a future post). Needless to say, of course,
that societies which opt for a stationary state always fail to satisfy
underlying desires for prosperity and opportunity, and are thus on the road to
decline.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/54/Lange-MigrantMother02.jpg/461px-Lange-MigrantMother02.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="File:Lange-MigrantMother02.jpg" border="0" height="320" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/54/Lange-MigrantMother02.jpg/461px-Lange-MigrantMother02.jpg" width="244" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Lange's 'Migrant Mother', symbol of the Great Depression</td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Yet it is perhaps the second problem of regulation that is
more insidious. Simply put, the cumulative effects of regulations are very
different from the addition of their individual costs and benefits. The
benefits of multiple regulations can often overlap, with diminishing returns
for each added layer of complexity. The cumulative costs, on the other hand,
generally exceed the sum of the individual costs, both from the additional need
to sort through the vast body of laws to identify which ones are in fact
relevant, and due to the far greater share of resources that must be put to
work in complying with official directives</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The most damaging aspect of this complexity is that its
effects are not equally spread – the huge budgets and compliance departments of
large and powerful corporations are well equipped to deal with these burdens.
Not so the small business or aspiring entrepreneur. By adding an additional
hurdle to entry, large companies reap the benefits of less competition (and I
am here not even mentioning the hand they have in writing these regulations).
Yet the biggest beneficiaries are, of course, the lawyers, accountants and
bureaucrats who thrive on complexity.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Rather than arguing blindly over a false dichotomy between
regulation and de-regulation, I would like to see more discussion about the
fairness of regulations. Though President Obama recently talked about the need
for fairer regulations, in asking only whether regulations benefit the rich
over the poor he misses the crucial point. We should instead be asking whether they
favour any special interests at all over the community as a whole. For the
reasons above, fairness and simplicity go hand-in-hand – and rather than simply
asking whether regulations favour the poor or the rich, we should recognise
that an excessive number of regulations ultimately only favours the powerful.</span></div>
DemosPoliticshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00147653377972533496noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6257108602743439093.post-92174563307168753162013-07-17T08:18:00.002-07:002016-07-22T10:15:36.749-07:00<div style="border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border: none; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 1.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm;">
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Why China is not Japan or the USSR</span></h1>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB">Albert Beardow.</span></div>
<span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/93/Tiananmen_Square_Visit.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/93/Tiananmen_Square_Visit.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tiananmen Square</td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><i>24-05-2013</i>: <i>One argument I hear from
China sceptics is that we’ve seen stories of America’s being overtaken by
another superpower before. In the 1950s and 1960s it was the USSR that many
predicted to become the world’s dominant economy in a matter of decades. In the
1970s and 1980s, it was Japan that was on the rise. Of course, we now know that
both of these were false prophecies, with both nations succumbing to their own,
serious internal problems, whilst the USA continued to drive forwards. It is
easy, therefore, to dismiss stories of China’s rise in a similar manner, with
the expectation that China will soon crash and burn, whilst the superior
institutions of the US bear out the day. Such a view is naïve. There are three
fundamental reasons why we can expect the Chinese economy to overtake that of
the US in the coming decades.</i></span></div>
<h1 style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Population</span></h1>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB">With a population less than half that of the United States, it was
always going to be a long shot for the Japanese economy of the US. GDP per capita
in Japan would need to be more than double that in America before Japan became
the world’s predominant economic power. As it happened, Japanese GDP per capita
did overtake that of the US, albeit briefly, but as a society mostly lacking in
natural resources came up against technological and innovation barriers, it
should have been obvious that continued high growth would be much more elusive.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB">China, on the other hand, has more than four times the population of
the United States. Even when it does overtake the US economy, its people will
be less than four times as productive and well off as those in the United
States. China will remain a developing country long after it becomes the
world’s economic superpower. Even today, about half of China’s population
remains in the countryside, a massive source of potential labour and
urbanisation to fuel China’s continued growth. Whilst I agree that it is a long
struggle ahead before the Chinese GDP per capita equals that of the United
States, this simply doesn’t need to happen in order for China to overtake the
US on a national level.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<h1 style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A Market Economy</span></h1>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB">Whilst the USSR had a population more similar to that of the US, its
economic system was fundamentally different. For those, like myself, who
subscribe to the idea that a free market capitalist system will deliver
superior results to a state-planned communist economy, the idea of the Soviet
Union exceeding America’s economic capacity was completely unrealistic. Those
who predicted the rise of the USSR were largely those Marxists and statists
with an unwarranted faith in central planning, bolstered by their belief in the
stories of those Westerns, such as Lincoln Steffens and Ella Winter, who had
seen a sanitised version of the Soviet Union and claimed that “it worked”.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f2/2012_Pudong.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f2/2012_Pudong.jpg" height="210" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pudong, Shanghai - China's financial and commercial hub</td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-GB">Although governed by a communist party, China is anything but
communist. Whilst the party might describe their economic system as “socialism
with Chinese characteristics”, a more apt epithet would be “capitalism with
Chinese characteristics” – a market driven economy combined with a strong,
Confucian state. Starting with reforms to agriculture and the establishment of
Special Economic Zones in the South, under Deng Xiaoping and his successors
China experienced a massive surge in entrepreneurship and the development of a
highly sophisticated, industrialised market economy. China has also embraced
free trade in a way most other developing economies failed to do at an early
stage - as a result, foreign trade has accounted for up to 75% of China’s GDP.
Chinese companies are also poised to take to the world stage – PetroChina, ICBC
and China Construction Bank are among the biggest public companies in the
world. Chinese companies are innovating as well – Baidu was recently rated the
5<sup>th</sup> most innovative company by Forbes, with Tencent not far behind,
meanwhile, technology companies like Huawei and Automobile companies like Chery
and Geely are poised to become big players in the global market.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB">Whilst it is true that state owned corporations play a much more
significant role in the Chinese economy than in the West, it should be stressed
that these are subject to fierce private and foreign competition, and are less
like the stagnant monopolies that have been typical of Western state owned
enterprises. Furthermore, Chinese government spending as a proportion of GDP is
actually considerably lower than that in most Western countries – in 2011 this
was 24% compared to 41% in the United States, and a higher level in most
European nations. Where Chinese state does have an oversized influence is in
fixed capital formation – which is really to say that the Chinese state is an
investor, whilst Western states are spendthrifts. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<h1 style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Institutional Momentum</span></h1>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB">The final point I’d make is that economic growth isn’t only
influenced by the institutions that a country has in the present, but in the
way those institutions are changing. Comparing China and the US, it initially
seems that the rule of law, better property protection, and government
accountability make the latter a far more attractive investment destination.
Yet starting from a low base, China has seen a substantial increase in the
quality of its institutions, whilst those in the US have been in decline.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c7/Abandoned_Packard_Automobile_Factory_Detroit_200.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c7/Abandoned_Packard_Automobile_Factory_Detroit_200.jpg" height="213" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">America in decline?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB">The World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index illustrates
the startling changes in the perceptions of institutions in these two nations. And
ultimately perceptions matter, because it is perceptions that influence
investment, business and entrepreneurial decisions. Since 2006, the United
States’ score for institutional quality has fallen from 5.07 to 4.59 – in the
same period, China’s has risen from 3.57 to 4.22, putting it a mere nine places
behind the US. In the most recent report, China now ranks better than the US in
no less than seven out of twenty-two measures of institutional quality: public
trust in politicians, favouritism in decisions of government officials,
wastefulness of government spending, the burden of government regulation,
transparency of government policymaking, business costs of terrorism, and
business costs of crime and violence.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB">The direction of this momentum could change, and it is always
possible that the US rectifies its institutional decay, whilst the Chinese
state succumbs to the temptations of keeping too much power for itself. But the
best indicators of whether this is likely is the political debate within a
nation, and whether there is in the first stage a recognition of the problems
that must be dealt with. A transition to the rule of law and an independent
judiciary – which would provide a crucial boost to China’s economic prospects –
is a topic of heavy debate in Beijing currently. Chinese Standing Committee
member Wang Qishan has reportedly recommended Alexis de Tocqueville’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Old Regime and the Revolution</i> to
fellow members of the politburo, in order to foster debate about the rule of
law and the political challenges China will encounter. On the other hand,
institutional decline is hardly a subject of discussion at all in Washington.
The US seems to be blindly walking downwards, oblivious to the fundamental
systemic problems that ail it.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<h1>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Pax Sinica?</span></h1>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB">In 2003, Goldman Sachs predicted that the Chinese economy would
overtake that of the US in 2041 – a prediction greeted with much incredulity.
In 2008, they brought the date forward to 2027. The IMF now suspects that the
Chinese economy will overtake the American in PPP terms by 2017. In stark
contrast to the predictions about Japan and the USSR, where the date of their
overtaking the US was consistently being pushed back, for China it is being
moved forward at a startling speed. Of course, changes in expected growth rates
could dramatically change the date of reckoning again – but it is not clear
that the chances of Chinese performance being sub-par are any more than those
for the United States.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB">Of course, China’s overtaking the USA in nominal GDP – perhaps a
better measure of global economic dominance – remains slightly further away –
though full convertibility of the Renminbi, which may happen as early as 2020,
would significantly speed the closing of this gap. And even when China becomes
the world’s leading economic power, it will still remain a developing country,
with an inward focus on all the domestic problems that accompany it. This means
that, whilst the Chinese will begin exerting more influence in key regions such
as Africa, it will be many decades before they become a truly global hegemon in
the manner of the United States or Britain before that.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB">So perhaps we should not fear so much the sudden rise of Chinese
global power that the West is unprepared for. Perhaps what we should fear is
that the United States’ global power will decline faster than China rises to
replace it. What we may see in the interim is not so much bipolarity or
multipolarity, but apolarity – the lack of any truly global powers with
influence covering all the world’s regions. And it is precisely apolarity that
allows rogue nations and non-state movements such as Islamic extremism to fill
regional power vacuums.</span></div>
</div>
DemosPoliticshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00147653377972533496noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6257108602743439093.post-11754998022222887822013-07-17T08:16:00.000-07:002016-07-22T10:16:02.711-07:00<br />
<h1 align="center" style="border: none; margin-top: 0cm; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 1.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm; padding: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<hr />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;">To those who say America can go on printing
money forever…</span></h1>
<hr />
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<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></b><span lang="EN-GB">Albert Beardow.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></b></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></b>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<i><span lang="EN-GB">21-05-2013: Every now and then I come across a commentator or blogger saying
that the US will never need to worry about a debt crisis, as the dollar is the
global reserve currency and so the US can just print as much money as it
desires to meet its needs. To me, this just provides evidence for how arrogant
and incredibly parochial many people in the West are today.</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB">Leave aside for now the theft from savers and lenders that inflation
would cause, not to mention the economic contraction as saving & productive
investment become near impossible. Leave aside the fact that quantitative
easing disproportionately benefits those who hold significant financial assets,
mostly the very wealthy, at the expense of those consumers unable to meet price
rises. I want to look here at the implications of the changing international
order, and how this view is a denial of the reality that the US is in decline
as a global hegemon. After all, inherent in the view that printing money will
not cause problems is the idea that the US dollar will remain the world’s
reserve currency. The rise of the Renminbi is coming sooner than you think.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<a href="http://www.publicdomainpictures.net/pictures/30000/velka/100-yuan-banknote.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.publicdomainpictures.net/pictures/30000/velka/100-yuan-banknote.jpg" height="212" width="320" /></a><span lang="EN-GB">It is not difficult to envision the following scenario. After such a
long period of low interest rates and quantitative easing, inflationary
pressures (be it in consumer goods or assets) really start beginning to bite,
and interest rates move upwards. The unaddressed fiscal deficit is worsened by
the increased interest outlays, and the Fed comes under immense political
pressure to continue bailing the government out with its money printing.
Meanwhile China, having steadily internationalised the Renminbi, has recently introduced
full convertibility. Worried about future US monetary policy, countries have
already substantially reduced their Dollar holdings in favour of other
currencies. Faced with the choice of a rapidly inflating Dollar or a stable
Renminbi, countries quickly move to the latter, initially in East Asia, by a
large margin the largest economic region in the world, but quickly followed by
South Asia, Africa, Oceania and Latin America. Even though they will lose out
as dropping the Dollar hastens the fall in its value, these nations are
prepared to take the loss to avoid any further disasters. Only Europe, the
Middle East and Central America, for political regions, consider continuing to
use the Dollar, but even there the economic logic is hard to resist. Faced with
the loss of the Dollar’s status as the premier world currency, the US has no
choice but to take the pain of inflation and austerity at home, experiencing
the kind of devastation currently seen in countries like Greece and Spain. This
is compounded by the surge in commodity prices in light of the weaker Dollar. The
Chinese financial world order has arrived with remarkable speed.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB">Of course, the full convertibility of the Renminbi is still many
years away, as is its complete replacement of the US dollar in the global financial
system. There will be many years of flux and gradual change before that
happens. But it will happen sooner than people think. In 2012, 6.6% of
Asia-Pacific trade with China was settled in Renminbi, with the figure as high
as 17.6% for Singapore and Taiwan – from a base of 0% in early 2009. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>HSBC predicts that as early as 2015 half of
China’s trade with developing countries could be carried out in Renminbi.
Central banks in countries such as Malaysia, India, Japan and South Korea
already hold foreign exchange reserves in Renminbi-denominated assets. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And China intends for Shanghai to be the
global financial capital by 2020, which implies full convertibility by this
date. Remember, this process only began in 2009, after the Western financial
crisis. And if commodity scarcity turns out to be the main drag on the Chinese
economy, a strong Renminbi could well work to their advantage.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB">The collapse of the dollar could also happen sooner than people
think. There is however, a catch here, a possible saving grace for the US in
the form of massive shale gas and oil reserves that can now be exploited. The
full impact this will have on the American financial situation is not
completely certain, but even if the US could use such a windfall to solve their
fiscal issues, I doubt they will. The political temptation to spend even more
on top of the energy boom is too great, and any crisis could be too mild to
force the US to learn their fiscal lessons. The day of reckoning will merely be
postponed. Perhaps to a time when the Renminbi is ready to take the Dollar’s
place.</span></div>
DemosPoliticshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00147653377972533496noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6257108602743439093.post-89155222968905193422013-07-17T08:15:00.002-07:002016-07-22T10:16:25.672-07:00<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 2; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: none; border-top: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 1.0pt 0cm 1.0pt 0cm;">
<h1 align="center" style="border: medium none; padding: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span lang="EN-GB">Upcoming Elections in Iran</span></span></h1>
</div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Albert Beardow.</div>
<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibfcv2RX1XPpuzAvELIs4qs4eapxI0X2UGRYiXOIhS9XFIZgoSRiu6iAld3evv9YBDZ9FBt8Ggm_p-82KZ_Z-OJyQmUkYAStfj6ppM-PyxdqGP616yhh5NPjA9SUSxSeCOV8w2cpw4fu5N/s1600/41d290470adfbfe47194.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibfcv2RX1XPpuzAvELIs4qs4eapxI0X2UGRYiXOIhS9XFIZgoSRiu6iAld3evv9YBDZ9FBt8Ggm_p-82KZ_Z-OJyQmUkYAStfj6ppM-PyxdqGP616yhh5NPjA9SUSxSeCOV8w2cpw4fu5N/s320/41d290470adfbfe47194.jpg" style="cursor: move;" width="320" /></a><i><span lang="EN-GB">17-05-2013: So it seems that the Guardian Council have extended their deadline
for approving election candidates. Not entirely unexpected, given the
additional dimension in this election now that Ahmadinejad has fallen out with
the Supreme Leader. The trouble for the regime is, of course, they now have two
popular figures to contend with on either side of the spectrum – and the last
thing they want is a Rafsanjani-Mashaei showdown.</span></i>
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Mashaei strikes me as someone much firmer in his belief of a
superior Persia and its historic legacy, than in tow to the relatively recent
religious agenda. To be approved for the election his religious views need to
be declared sound – but that didn’t stop Ahmadinejad’s deviant beliefs from
getting in his way. Of course, I doubt anyone really knows how the regime
decides which candidates make it onto the ballot paper, and I suspect
behind-the-scenes negotiations on this subject in particular are the reason for
the delay. The Western media, as expected, doesn’t seem particularly interested
in the subject at this stage, but China Daily seems to be suggesting that the
Ahmadinejad-Mashaei ticket still has a big enough power base within state
institutions to pose a significant threat. Still, the regime is powerful, and
there’s a significant chance Mashaei will be disqualified before the elections
begin – after all, he himself has said he will bow to the law if that is what
is decided. Which leaves Hashemi Rafsanjani as the other figure likely to cause trouble.</span></span></span></span>
<br />
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">
</span></span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Sources
have it that Hashemi only decided to register after cutting a
deal – albeit one we know nothing about –with Khamenei, so I would be
surprised
if his name didn’t show up on the final ballot. Nevertheless, the
connections
of this grandee of Iranian politics could make him a substantial
opponent of
Khamenei during this election, and a thorn in his side after it, should
he win. How
much of a more conciliatory stance to the West, and how much of a reform
agenda
he would be able to push through, it is difficult to say. After all, he
has been
president once before, and the boxed-in reform momentum under Mohammad
Khatami
has been entirely reversed under Ahmadinejad. Perhaps the real impact
will not so much reform be but rather government paralysis should a
conflict between Hashemi
and Khamenei prove too great.</span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC9klWeMRl_Efa3lHSuXuuhj3L3idIDHq4aYGqyWUTIOcW-YmdOT64nQc6U0EGpee6gjY3cyiBgSaCix6BMiFWevKSzyKVAtb6PPC556QZxod0_ecgZdYshGBwaZdhGIO6rVTusIg7E1ao/s1600/41d290470cf4a89c2ee4.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC9klWeMRl_Efa3lHSuXuuhj3L3idIDHq4aYGqyWUTIOcW-YmdOT64nQc6U0EGpee6gjY3cyiBgSaCix6BMiFWevKSzyKVAtb6PPC556QZxod0_ecgZdYshGBwaZdhGIO6rVTusIg7E1ao/s320/41d290470cf4a89c2ee4.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ahmadinejad and Mashaei (left)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">Nevertheless, the regime does seem especially wary at present.
Reformist candidate and US academic Hooshang Amirahmadi said when he registered
last week that officials were “really nervous and that surprises me”. Perhaps
the fear is that the support base for the regime-friendly “principilist”
candidate – likely one of Velayati, Qalibaf or Jalili – is simply too squeezed
between the very poor who favour Ahmadinejad, and the middle classes who favour
a reformist. So does the regime consider Hashemi or Mashaei more dangerous?
Will they risk one winning by disqualifying the other, or alienating a huge
section of the population if they disqualify both?</span></span></span></span>
</div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">
</span></span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">There is an additional interesting element to this. The three-way
contest in Iran almost seems to mirror three principle international interests
in Iran – namely the US, Russia and China. Though Hashemi is in no way fully
representative of Western interests, he does favour greater engagement and lower tensions with the West . Russia, of
course, is happy for Iran to remain firmly in the hands of the Supreme leader,
not least because tensions over the region keep oil prices high. And Russian
officials seem to have cultivated a remarkably close relationship with the
Iranian clergy, whilst distancing themselves from Ahmadinejad. China, on the
other hand, desires oil from Iran, and it seems like Mashaei is a man they can
do deals with. His belief in the legacy and superiority of Persian
civilisation, and the ignominy suffered at the hands of the West, is something
China can easily relate to. International relations expert John Garver has
suggested that China would be happy to see Iran as a dominant power in West
Asia, to partner its own dominance in East Asia, and Mashaei’s seems to have a
similar vision for Iran’s role.</span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;">
</span></span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">In other news, the live election debates Iran decided to try out for
the last election are now going to be pre-recorded. A shame, as I’m sure this
will involve the removal of all the interesting things that come out. I seem to
remember watching Ahmadinejad holding up a picture of a snake to represent
economic figures at the last election, and Mir Hossein Mousavi telling
Ahmadinejad that he was the snake. Of course, I don’t speak Farsi, so I could
be wrong. But such antics will nonetheless be missed.</span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOuvLGQ4UegCidUsHDbaxcB7g9kb2oJ6E428rtWT7W-eLrgGyl8B2COp17440GtVaS9DhY_GYg0BZ1y8MEc-fP9ZQoeC4hVY0TFM0cdj12QPZ8aV3XTfdbhcSNT91B5hY4na71t3AE5SvV/s1600/AkbarHashemiRafsanjani1.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOuvLGQ4UegCidUsHDbaxcB7g9kb2oJ6E428rtWT7W-eLrgGyl8B2COp17440GtVaS9DhY_GYg0BZ1y8MEc-fP9ZQoeC4hVY0TFM0cdj12QPZ8aV3XTfdbhcSNT91B5hY4na71t3AE5SvV/s320/AkbarHashemiRafsanjani1.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Hashemi Rafsanjani</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
</h2>
DemosPoliticshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00147653377972533496noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6257108602743439093.post-84232815530247785882012-11-05T18:58:00.006-08:002016-07-22T10:17:08.357-07:00<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; line-height: 115%;"><strike> </strike> </span></b></span><br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; line-height: 115%;">America
needs a turnaround</span></b></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; line-height: 115%;">And why Mitt Romney is the best person
to deliver it</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; line-height: 115%;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; line-height: 115%;"><strike>
</strike></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Albert Beardow.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b>
</div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://www.publicdomainpictures.net/pictures/10000/nahled/296-1246748434ZRK7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="US Flag" border="0" class="okraj" height="214" src="https://www.publicdomainpictures.net/pictures/10000/nahled/296-1246748434ZRK7.jpg" width="320" /></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";"> It
would be unfair to judge Obama solely on economic performance over the past
four years. It takes several years following a balance sheet recession for a
return to strong economic fundamentals, as households and corporations slowly
pay off excessive debt. Coupled with the Eurozone crisis, there is little a
President can do to improve the economy over such a four year period, save
having the government spend more to boost GDP.</span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">More
worrisome is the direction in which Obama is sending America over the next
decade. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">According
to the World Economic Forum, under Obama’s presidency the United States has
fallen from the first to the seventh most competitive economy in the world, entirely
due to a drop in its own score, rather than increases in those of other
countries. The overall score understates the shockingly low rankings the US has
in areas where government has the most impact – the quality of its institutions
ranks 41<sup>st</sup>, whilst it takes 76<sup>th</sup> place for wastefulness
of government spending. The three most problematic factors for doing business?
Inefficient government bureaucracy, tax rates and tax regulation.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Does
Mitt Romney have what it takes to turn the US around? Certainly he is not
perfect, and many wonder what his true convictions are, given his frequent
changes in position. (Though changing one’s policies to better match those one
represents should hardly be controversial in a democracy). Nevertheless, the
biggest divide between Obama and Romney is clear: Obama believes in a bigger
federal government, Romney believes in a smaller one. Perhaps more importantly,
Mitt Romney has a career history full of executive competency, whilst in four
years Obama has failed to show the bold leadership that is needed to make
America the hope of the world once again.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Still,
Obama’s supporters have many achievements to tout, so let us examine exactly
how Obama’s policies demonstrate failed leadership and lead to declining
competitiveness.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: #cccccc; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The response to the financial
crisis</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Just as
one can’t blame Obama for today’s poor economic figures, one can’t credit his
stimulus with rescuing the country from depression. That credit goes to the
Federal Reserve, which, having learned Milton Friedman’s lessons from the 1930s
depression, prevented a catastrophic collapse in the money supply. Yet cheap
money can only buy time for governments to let the economy restructure, before
its own side effects start to have effect. A recent paper by William White demonstrates
how ultra-easy monetary policies “create malinvestments in the real economy, …
encourage governments to refrain from confronting sovereign debt problems in a
timely way, and redistribute income and wealth in a highly regressive fashion.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">By
stimulating and bailing out the parts of the economy that need to restructure,
Obama is at best pushing the US towards the “stationary state”, where
businesses inadequately prepared for the modern global economy survive on cheap
money and continue using resources inefficiently. At worst, he is actively
picking winners and losers, taking influence away from the people in deciding
what ought to be produced, and leading to heavy public losses when bad
investments are made, as in the case of Solyndra. CNN found that Obama’s $787
billion stimulus created only 300,000 jobs at a cost of about $262 000 per job.
And whilst the American economy is that much deeper in debt as a result, the
British economy has been creating jobs at an equally fast pace, whilst implementing
an austerity programme. The fact that GDP growth has at the same time been much
slower in the UK is simply a reflection of the fact that GDP numbers don’t take
into account the quality of that growth – whether it is sustainable, and
whether it delivers society with the goods and services they want.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The
world has changed. Obama is not one to shy away from this fact, and yet his
policies are designed to rebuild the same uncompetitive industries that existed
before the crisis. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, has started campaigning for
“change we can believe in”. Whilst Mitt Romney repeatedly makes his claim that
he has experience in delivering change, it is often forgotten just how
pioneering Mitt Romney’s early career was.</span></div>
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<a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/Photos_NewYork1_032.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/Photos_NewYork1_032.jpg" border="0" height="300" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/Photos_NewYork1_032.jpg" width="400" /></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">When
Mitt Romney finished his MBA at Harvard, the American economy was also becoming
ever more stationary, and losing out rapidly to Japanese competition. Rather
than join and work his way up the ranks of a traditional industrial company, as
was typical of many MBA students, Mitt Romney chose to join Bruce Henderson in
his attempt to overturn the outdated and stagnant management practices that
were blocking the success of US businesses. At Bain Capital, Romney was
somewhat innovative for his time in using practices from strategic consulting
to turn around businesses and make them create value more efficiently, rather
than simply applying financial engineering as had often been the case in
private equity.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">This is
the change that Romney has delivered, in addition to his accomplishments
running the 2002 Winter Olympics and as Massachusetts governor. And at a time
when globalisation and technological change are creating seismic disturbances
within developed economies, Romney is well placed to once again lead businesses
and society in adapting to and benefitting from these opportunities.</span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Financial market reform</span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">It is
easy to score political points by blaming the crisis solely on de-regulation
and the policies of Bush. However, this misses the longer-term contributions
from both the Reagan and Clinton years, which created a complex and flawed
financial regulatory system that failed to live up to its purpose. Obama’s
contribution was to let Christopher Dodd and Barney Frank draw up a 2,319 page
act of horrendous complexity, able to be fully understood only by those banks
who can afford to hire armies of lawyers. It is perfectly understandable to
want to prevent the activities that caused the crisis from recurring – but simply
blocking the symptoms of the underlying institutional degeneration can often
contribute to the disease itself.</span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">On the
other hand, Romney understands correctly that, whilst the majority of
regulations on their own have some merit to them, when added up, the costs of
compliance often end up outweighing the benefits of the regulations themselves.
He has promised to run a cost-benefit analysis of every regulation Obama has
put in place, and do away with or reform those that don’t pass this test. He
will also look to ensure the cumulative burden of the regulations – the costs
when added together – don’t outweigh their collective benefits. This is the way
Romney operates, and what he does best – looking closely at the data and
developing solutions based on the emerging patterns and results. Importantly,
it also shows a trust and faith in the people – faith that entrepreneurs will
be able to make their own judgements on how to run their businesses without
damaging their surroundings.</span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Healthcare</span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Obama
had the opportunity to lead a serious bipartisan discussion about how to
confront rising costs and inadequate coverage. Instead, he allowed his allies
in congress to force through a one-size-fits-all bill that the majority of the
public disapproved of. Though admirable in its intentions, it fails to confront
the drivers of America’s high healthcare costs – including the inflated costs
of medical staff, and the larger pool of money spent on insurance when this is
linked to employment. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Of
course, as has often been pointed out, a key blueprint for the ACA was Romney’s
own healthcare system in Massachusetts. Yet the differences are in many ways
more important than the similarities. Romneycare was 70 pages long; Obamacare,
2,074. There was an opt-out provision for the mandate in Romneycare; with
Obamacare, your only alternative is to pay a penalty. Romney built consensus
with an 87% Democrat legislature to craft a bill that received strong popular
support, whereas Obamacare is disliked by half the nation.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">It has
been remarked on many times during this campaign that divisions like these are
symptomatic of the two Americas that currently exist. Yet the political system
is constructed such that there can be 50 Americas – for the America you find in
California is very different from that in Michigan, Connecticut or Texas. The
crucial point about Romneycare was that it was a state level solution in a
highly diverse country where federal one-size-fits-all policies are rarely as
effective. Romney understands that the size of the federal government makes it
cumbersome and more inept at meeting the demands of individual Americans – and
that the ability for policies to be effected at a state level is one of the
beautiful elements of the United States.</span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Foreign Policy</span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Finally,
there tends to be a consensus that Obama has at least been successful in the
foreign policy sphere. He did get bin Laden, after all. Yet it is surprisingly
difficult to define Obama’s overall foreign policy strategy. He did nothing to
support the green revolution in Iran, and then equivocated whilst Hosni Mubarak
was being overthrown in Egypt. In spite of his assertions, he failed to take
leadership on Libya and Syria, leaving the former to Britain and France and ceding
too much initiative to Russia on the latter. He lost the credibility of the
Israelis and failed to gain that of the Palestinians.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Those
who think Romney a warmonger have missed the fact that his foreign policy
stances were to Obama’s in the third debate. If war comes it will come from
Iran’s actions - whoever is in the White House won’t make a difference, because
both candidates know that a nuclear arms race in the Middle East is more
unpalatable than a pre-emptive military strike. Instead, the key difference
between Romney and Obama in foreign policy is that Romney believes America does
have a role in leading the free nations of the world, and ought to be a more
visible actor on the world stage, uncompromising on the principles of liberty.</span></div>
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<b>Forward?</b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">So much
for what the President has done – more significant is what he hasn’t. For the
biggest threat to America isn’t external at all, but the internal decline in
competitiveness. One crucial symptom of this is the unsustainable growth
projected in federal spending and debt. Not only has Obama ignored this over
the last four years, but continues to offer no solution to the biggest driver
of government costs – social security and Medicare, which will soon cover close
to 50% of federal spending. Even when Obama had the opportunity to lead on this
issue by accepting the recommendations of the bipartisan Simpson-Bowles deficit
reduction commission, and make the Republicans look irresponsible, he failed to
show any seriousness about this issue. Former Clinton Chief of Staff Erskine
Bowles reportedly said of Obama’s budget for fiscal year 2013: “I don’t think
anybody took that budget very seriously. The Senate voted against it 97 to
nothing”.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Romney
has a plan to reduce the costs of Medicare to preserve the programme over the
long run, and by selecting Chairman of the House Budget Committee Paul Ryan as
his running mate, has shown that he is serious about the country’s long-term
fiscal health. Bowles said of Paul Ryan’s budget for 2013 “It is a sensible,
straightforward, honest, serious budget and it cut the budget deficit… by $4
trillion.”</span></div>
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<a href="http://cdn4.wn.com/ph/img/0b/bf/7938e68c88442d88e8e20ff24b59-grande.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" id="il_fi" src="https://cdn4.wn.com/ph/img/0b/bf/7938e68c88442d88e8e20ff24b59-grande.jpg" style="padding-bottom: 8px; padding-right: 8px; padding-top: 8px;" width="320" /></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">Of
course, the Democrat outlook is generally that a significant part of deficit
reduction should come from tax increases. Yet few people seem to remember that,
at 35%, the US has the highest rate of central corporate taxation in the OECD. Though
Obama sensibly plans to cut this rate, when combined with state taxes, an
average corporate taxation rate of 32.1% would still put the US above every OECD
country except Japan, Belgium and France. And this fall would largely be
negated by Obama’s plan to increase the top tax rate on dividend income from
15% to 43.4%.</span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The
verdict on US taxation more broadly is poor. According to the WEF, the US has
the 103<sup>rd</sup> lowest overall tax rate on profits, higher than countries
such as Denmark, Finland and Norway. Forbes even ranks the US behind France and
Sweden in terms of the impact of the overall tax burden. Romney, far from the
caricature of him giving away tax breaks for the rich, would look to tackle the
real problem with US taxation – the unenviably complex tax code and vast number
of deductions which cost more than $1 trillion annually. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">The
trouble with Obama’s America is that it would look much like California does
today. Sure, California has a lot of great things – Hollywood, Silicon Valley,
green jobs, some of world’s most renowned companies. But it also has
unemployment over 10%, bankrupt cities away from the coast, and rising crime.
House prices in the main employment centres are becoming rapidly unaffordable,
whilst houses in smaller towns have been subject to devastating booms and
busts. Government spending is excessively wasteful. And ever higher tax rates
are needed to compensate for the fact that people can’t find decent jobs.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">For
those who want a better understanding of Romney’s core principles and beliefs,
perhaps the best outline comes from an article more often cited by the Obama
campaign: “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Let Detroit Go Bankrupt</i>”.
Beyond the title, the article itself displays the deep level of insight into
wealth creation that Romney has gained over a career in business, and an
understanding of how efficient and competitive production will determine
America’s long-term success. Moreover, it is highly reasonable in suggesting
that executive pay is reduced from excessive levels, and in its strong support
for government funding of early-stage research, as opposed to large commercial
operations.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; line-height: 115%;">“Detroit needs a
turnaround, not a check.” The same is true of America. More government spending
and quantitative easing can paper over the symptoms, but are no substitute for
reinvigorating a nation’s competitiveness. Obama has failed to display
leadership on this issue over the last four years. Romney has a life record of
showing leadership where it matters. He is a data-driven man who has made a
living out of analysing organisations to see how they could be better run and
create more value. This is exactly the sort of person we need in the White
House.</span></span>DemosPoliticshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00147653377972533496noreply@blogger.com0