Upcoming Elections in Iran

Albert Beardow.

17-05-2013: So it seems that the Guardian Council have extended their deadline for approving election candidates. Not entirely unexpected, given the additional dimension in this election now that Ahmadinejad has fallen out with the Supreme Leader. The trouble for the regime is, of course, they now have two popular figures to contend with on either side of the spectrum – and the last thing they want is a Rafsanjani-Mashaei showdown.

Mashaei strikes me as someone much firmer in his belief of a superior Persia and its historic legacy, than in tow to the relatively recent religious agenda. To be approved for the election his religious views need to be declared sound – but that didn’t stop Ahmadinejad’s deviant beliefs from getting in his way. Of course, I doubt anyone really knows how the regime decides which candidates make it onto the ballot paper, and I suspect behind-the-scenes negotiations on this subject in particular are the reason for the delay. The Western media, as expected, doesn’t seem particularly interested in the subject at this stage, but China Daily seems to be suggesting that the Ahmadinejad-Mashaei ticket still has a big enough power base within state institutions to pose a significant threat. Still, the regime is powerful, and there’s a significant chance Mashaei will be disqualified before the elections begin – after all, he himself has said he will bow to the law if that is what is decided. Which leaves Hashemi Rafsanjani as the other figure likely to cause trouble.

Sources have it that Hashemi only decided to register after cutting a deal – albeit one we know nothing about –with Khamenei, so I would be surprised if his name didn’t show up on the final ballot. Nevertheless, the connections of this grandee of Iranian politics could make him a substantial opponent of Khamenei during this election, and a thorn in his side after it, should he win. How much of a more conciliatory stance to the West, and how much of a reform agenda he would be able to push through, it is difficult to say. After all, he has been president once before, and the boxed-in reform momentum under Mohammad Khatami has been entirely reversed under Ahmadinejad. Perhaps the real impact will not so much reform be but rather government paralysis should a conflict between Hashemi and Khamenei prove too great.

Ahmadinejad and Mashaei (left)

Nevertheless, the regime does seem especially wary at present. Reformist candidate and US academic Hooshang Amirahmadi said when he registered last week that officials were “really nervous and that surprises me”. Perhaps the fear is that the support base for the regime-friendly “principilist” candidate – likely one of Velayati, Qalibaf or Jalili – is simply too squeezed between the very poor who favour Ahmadinejad, and the middle classes who favour a reformist. So does the regime consider Hashemi or Mashaei more dangerous? Will they risk one winning by disqualifying the other, or alienating a huge section of the population if they disqualify both?

There is an additional interesting element to this. The three-way contest in Iran almost seems to mirror three principle international interests in Iran – namely the US, Russia and China. Though Hashemi is in no way fully representative of Western interests, he does favour greater engagement  and lower tensions with the West . Russia, of course, is happy for Iran to remain firmly in the hands of the Supreme leader, not least because tensions over the region keep oil prices high. And Russian officials seem to have cultivated a remarkably close relationship with the Iranian clergy, whilst distancing themselves from Ahmadinejad. China, on the other hand, desires oil from Iran, and it seems like Mashaei is a man they can do deals with. His belief in the legacy and superiority of Persian civilisation, and the ignominy suffered at the hands of the West, is something China can easily relate to. International relations expert John Garver has suggested that China would be happy to see Iran as a dominant power in West Asia, to partner its own dominance in East Asia, and Mashaei’s seems to have a similar vision for Iran’s role.

In other news, the live election debates Iran decided to try out for the last election are now going to be pre-recorded. A shame, as I’m sure this will involve the removal of all the interesting things that come out. I seem to remember watching Ahmadinejad holding up a picture of a snake to represent economic figures at the last election, and Mir Hossein Mousavi telling Ahmadinejad that he was the snake. Of course, I don’t speak Farsi, so I could be wrong. But such antics will nonetheless be missed.

Hashemi Rafsanjani